Hi,

As Bitcoin surges past $90,000 and gold reaches unprecedented heights, we're witnessing nothing short of a financial paradigm shift. The asset once dismissed as merely speculative is now stands tall as the dollar falters, revealing its likely true nature as digital gold and a macro hedge. This may not be just another bull run— but validation of a thesis held by many for years.

In today's newsletter, we dive deep into Bitcoin's decoupling from traditional markets, the flood of institutional capital entering the space, and why this moment represents a fundamental realignment in the global financial order. Whether you're a seasoned HODLer or recent convert, understanding these shifts will be crucial for navigating what promises to be an extraordinary chapter in crypto's evolution.

Bitcoin is experiencing a pivotal moment as it increasingly decouples from traditional financial markets and asserts itself as a macro hedge and “digital gold.” Over the past month, Bitcoin has broken out above key technical levels, with price surging past $90,000 and dominance exceeding 64%—the highest in years. This move comes as the US dollar index (DXY) falls to multi-year lows (down 9% YTD), gold hits all-time highs ($3,500/oz), and US equities experience significant drawdowns.

Institutional flows are a major driver: Bitcoin ETFs saw $381M in inflows in a single day (the largest since January 31), signaling robust demand from both retail and institutional investors. The narrative is shifting from Bitcoin as a “risk-on” asset to a true macro hedge, with many analysts and investors now treating it as a safe haven alongside gold.

Multiple podcasts highlighted the growing consensus that Bitcoin is benefiting from macro uncertainty—US tariffs, trade wars, concerns about Fed independence, and the weakening dollar. Bitcoin’s correlation to stocks is breaking down, and it is increasingly being viewed as a store of value and hedge against both inflation and political risk. While some warn of short-term volatility due to leverage and thin liquidity, the long-term trend is clear: Bitcoin is being adopted as a core portfolio asset by a growing range of investors, from sovereign wealth funds to corporations and individuals.

This “digital gold” narrative is reinforced by the fact that Bitcoin is now outperforming most other assets, including stocks and even gold over certain timeframes. The interplay between gold and Bitcoin is also notable: gold tends to run first as the “smart money” (central banks, sovereigns) moves, but Bitcoin’s volatility and upside potential make it the next logical step for capital seeking safety and growth.

Bitcoin is no longer just a speculative asset—it is now a central player in the global macro landscape, and its role as a hedge and store of value is only growing stronger.

The US’s aggressive tariff policy—spearheaded by the Trump administration—has become the dominant macro driver for global markets and crypto. With tariffs on Chinese goods reaching up to 245%, and threats of further escalation, the world is witnessing a “game of chicken” between the US and its major trading partners (China, Japan, EU). This has led to a collapse in global trade flows, a sharp decline in the US dollar index, and a massive rotation of capital out of US stocks and bonds.

Podcasts across the board highlighted the unprecedented nature of this moment: stocks, bonds, and the dollar are all falling together—a rare and dangerous combination. Investors are seeking safety in gold, Bitcoin, and non-US assets, while US equities and bonds are being shunned. The risk of a US recession is rising, and concerns about Fed independence (Trump vs. Powell) are adding to the uncertainty.

There is debate over whether tariffs are inflationary or deflationary, but the consensus is that they are causing stagflationary pressures and undermining confidence in US assets. Some analysts see this as a “fourth turning” moment—a structural shift in the global order, with the US dollar’s dominance being challenged and new safe havens emerging.

The impact on crypto is profound: Bitcoin and gold are both benefiting from capital flight, and stablecoins are increasingly being used as alternatives to traditional payment rails. The macro environment is now the primary driver of crypto markets, and investors are advised to avoid assets at the “center of the storm” (large cap US equities) and favor those that benefit from stagflation and dollar weakness.

The key message: The US tariff war is reshaping global capital flows, weakening the dollar, and accelerating the adoption of alternative assets like Bitcoin and gold. Crypto investors must pay close attention to macro policy, as it is now the main determinant of market direction.

Stablecoins have emerged as a central force in global finance, driving both the continued dominance of the US dollar and new regulatory challenges. With over $200B in market cap (USDC: $61B, Tether: $145B), stablecoins are now the primary on-ramp for global users, especially in regions with unstable local currencies. 99% of stablecoins are USD-denominated, and forecasts suggest the market could reach $2T by 2028.

Podcasts highlighted the dual nature of stablecoins: they are both a tool for US soft power (exporting the dollar) and a potential threat to national sovereignty (EU, Asia). The US is moving toward regulatory clarity with the Stablecoin Act and Genius Act, while the EU (MiCA), Hong Kong, and Japan are also rolling out stablecoin frameworks. The debate over yield-bearing stablecoins is heating up, with some regulators (and incumbents like Circle and Tether) pushing to ban them, while others see them as essential for innovation and competition.

Asia is a key battleground: Hong Kong and Japan are leading with clear regulations, and stablecoins are being used for remittances, trade, and as a hedge against local currency risk. In the US, major crypto firms (Circle, Coinbase, BitGo) are seeking bank charters to solidify their role in the financial system.

The future of stablecoins will determine the fate of the US dollar’s global dominance, the structure of the crypto industry, and the ability of users worldwide to access reliable, censorship-resistant money. For investors, stablecoins are both an opportunity (yield, payments, DeFi) and a risk (regulatory uncertainty, competition from CBDCs and non-USD stablecoins).

Stablecoins are at the heart of the battle for the future of money, and their regulation, adoption, and integration into TradFi will shape the next decade of crypto and global finance.

Ethereum is at a crossroads, undergoing what many are calling a “strategic pivot” to refocus on Layer 1 (L1) scaling, value accrual, and ecosystem health. For years, Ethereum pursued a “rollup-centric” roadmap, prioritizing Layer 2 (L2) solutions and exporting much of its user activity and value to rollups and sidechains. However, this has led to concerns about value leakage, declining ETH price (ETH/BTC at multi-year lows), and the rise of credible competitors like Solana.

Podcasts featured in-depth debates among leading Ethereum researchers, developers, and commentators. There is now broad agreement that Ethereum must improve L1 scaling, user experience, and value capture to remain competitive. The community is grappling with how to balance L1 and L2 priorities, with some advocating for “Ethereum maximalism” (focus on L1) and others for a more ecosystem-driven approach.

The rollup-centric roadmap is being re-examined: are L2s “parasitic” or “symbiotic”? How much value should accrue to ETH holders vs. L2s and app chains? The success of Solana—faster, cheaper, and with a growing DeFi/NFT ecosystem—has forced Ethereum to confront its weaknesses and adapt.

The future of DeFi, NFTs, and on-chain culture depends on how Ethereum navigates this transition. The outcome will determine whether Ethereum remains the dominant smart contract platform or cedes ground to new challengers. For investors, the key is to watch for concrete progress on L1 scaling, value accrual mechanisms, and the ability to attract and retain top developers and users.

Ethereum is in the midst of a critical evolution, and its ability to adapt will shape the next era of crypto innovation and investment.

As we wrap up this edition, it's clear we're witnessing history in the making. Bitcoin's surge beyond $90,000 isn't just a price milestone—it's confirmation of a fundamental shift in global finance. From Bitcoin's emergence as digital gold and macro hedge to the reshaping of global trade through tariffs, from stablecoins challenging traditional banking to Ethereum's strategic pivot—these aren't isolated events but interconnected pieces of a new financial paradigm taking shape before our eyes.

What's your take on this financial transformation? Are you positioning your portfolio for a world where Bitcoin serves as a legitimate macro hedge?

We'd love to hear your thoughts—reply directly to this email and tell us how you're navigating these seismic shifts in the market. And if you found value in today's insights, please share this newsletter with friends and colleagues who might benefit from understanding these critical developments. The conversation about crypto's role in the future financial system is too important to keep to ourselves.

Until the next issue, stay vigilant and keep building for the future that's rapidly becoming our present.